Dependence and Negligence: A systematic approach towards measuring the share of Renewable resources in India and Europe.
Photo by American Public Power Association on Unsplash
Abstract
The structural transformation of the economy has predated the shift towards sustainable development, countries as part of the European Union have implemented various policy frameworks to reduce the emissions to net zero by 2050, similarly India in 2021 COP addressed to reduce the carbon emissions to zero by 2070. However, a closer inspection provides a disjuncture both in the case of Europe and India. Residential demands have surged the usage of solid fuels in the case of Europe, whereas in the case of India, it is the industrial demand which accounts for nearly 70% of the total electricity consumption. This paper will discuss in detail the different case scenario of both India and Europe, with respect to the share of renewable resources over the last ten years and compare and contrast the problems faced by both the entities with respect to fossil fuel consumption.
The curious case of Europe
The implications of climate change have desecrated the negligence envisaged by the developed nations, in recent years various policy decisions and frameworks have taken place to harmonize the relationship between growth and development with that of sustainable environmental decisions. Europe, a group of countries formed through the ECC (European Economic community) after the second world war provides an intriguing picture regarding the policy designing and subsequent implementation. The countries within the European union have seen exponential growth and development over the dawn of the 21st century, contributing thrice the GDP of USA and partaking in various bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. Although the growth in between the European countries stays at a disjuncture, Similarly, there lies the uneven distribution between following the climate change agreements. Nevertheless, European countries have been at the forefront for reducing their carbon footprints collectively, by implementing renewable energy systems and other such environmental developments, however, certain countries have detracted from completing the mandates. The dependency over fossil fuels still persists the overall challenge and simultaneously questions whether the European countries would be able to meet their goals envisaged at the Paris agreement, i.e., Zero emissions of fossil fuels by 2050. In this section, we’ll hence discuss about the various levels of dependency by 29 European countries over fossil fuels and their subsequent emission levels, furthermore their reliance and development of renewable energy systems over the years. Afterwards in section II, in order to substantiate the overall argument, we’ll particularly shed light upon the cases of Poland, and France in an attempt to compare and contrast the earlier Results and Discussion (Section I).
In order to measure the fossil fuel consumption, it is imperative to dissect the energy sources as there lies a discrepancy in the emission value. Furthermore, there are various variables to understand the energy consumption. Fossil fuel consumption can be quantified into an equation consisting of the sources and their relative expenditure. The three sources are Solid Fuels, Total Petroleum Products, and Gas. It is then divided by the total energy expenditure consisting of other renewable sources.
Fossil fuel energy consumption (%) = E (Solid Fuels) +E (Total petroleum Products) +E(Gas)/Gross energy consumption; wherein E refers to the energy expenditure.
In an analysis of the above component conducted by Florinda Martina et al., Below I mention the designated graphical output of the various components (Fig 1).
The above picture provides a description of the energy emissions per unit of the sources as previously mentioned, the table is divided into main three categories which is imperative for our study. It is visible that Solid Fuels emit more amount of greenhouse gases as compared to petroleum and Gaseous fuels. For example, CO2 released from any of the above solid sources measured in British Thermal Unit, emits around at a range of 93.28 to 113.67 Kg/MMBtu which is relatively higher than gaseous substances and certain petroleum products. Now that we understand the various components of green-house gas emissions, their relative emission levels, next we’ll focus upon the segregated contribution levels exhibited by the European countries as shown in Figure 1.
In fig.1, It is highly visible that the source of emissions for each European country is quite different relatively to each other, signifying different proportional share in total emission levels. In countries such as Estonia, Poland, Slovakia, there is higher dependency over solid fuels for energy production, whereas Italy, Sweden, Hungary has greater reliance over gaseous fuels. As we can understand, sources do play a role in measuring the total emission values, hence such discrepancy does derail the reliability factor of measuring and generalizing Europe’s emission levels as a whole. In order to have a reliable approach, certain countries have been pooled from the total array based on the reliance over non-renewable sources. Hence, United Kingdom, France, Czech Republic and Poland have been selected for a specific detailed study in order to exhibit the variables explaining the rationale behind country’s dependency over non-renewable sources.
Reliance variables over the usage of non-Renewable sources
In a study by Florinda Martins et al., She defined the dependent variables contributing in sustaining the reliance over non-renewable resources. In the correlation analysis, she mentioned that there lies a negative relationship between fossil fuel energy consumption and share of renewable energy. Although the explanation provided by the paper didn’t shed much light in explaining such trends, nevertheless, in an attempt to justify the relationship, there are certain key indicators which could be looked upon for the argument, foremost being the economic conditions of the country. As share of highly-intensive industry sector declined, therefore the reliance over solid-fuels for manufacturing purposes, moreover as country progressed towards structural transformation of the economy by shifting towards more service sectors, so did the emission levels. This relationship though was explained by a grey model developed by Liang Liu et al. In a study conducted by Larsson et al. herein he tried to explain the relationship between GDP and global emission levels through Brundtland Curve. He mentioned that at the beginning of the structural transformation of the economy wherein rural workers make a shift towards urbanized locations to find better economic opportunities, this heavy reliance over heavy industries in an attempt to provide better economic opportunities drives the emission levels as manufacturing industries require solid fuels for the overall functioning. The growing consumption in the market in turn leads to greater production of goods and services which offshoots the emission levels as standard of living increases with increase in income of the workers. The reliance over the manufacturing industries has its own historical contexts, in order to rationalize the argument, the next section will shed light upon certain key countries important for the overall understanding of the paper.
A Historical context and resultant trend over usage of fossil fuels.
The advent of Industrialization pushed for greater demands in the market, as production increased, so did the emission levels. The concept of Industrial model of growth and development was so paramount that much of the environmental factors were left to scourge amidst the economic transformation. It was only during the 1970s that for the first-time environmental degradation was seen as the bete noire towards long term development, Stockholm conference which was held in 1972 envisaged 26 principles in adherence towards environmental conservation and protection, and recognized the ill-effects of organic pollutants or the greenhouse gases. The meetings regarding the environmental protection took place during the 1980s, Vienna convention in the year 1985 and the Montreal Protocol, both aimed at improving the Ozone layer by actively reducing the release of green-house gases. It was only during the 1991 UNFCCC meeting wherein the effective model of sustainable development was selected as the key towards coupling growth with environmental protection measures. It also manifested the issues of differing duties in adherence towards environmental protection measures, wherein the divide was laid out between the global north as the bloc consisting of developed countries and the global south consisting of developing nations. The aims and aspirations for development were different to both the blocs as the south still lacked the capital to accelerate growth, therefore the protocol measures were then formulated and implemented differently towards such countries.
Europe was divided in two separate blocs within itself, with the west controlled and subsequently funded by the USA, marked with immense prosperity and huge capital formation, however the eastern bloc, being controlled by the Russian Federation at the time under the umbrella of Soviet Union functioned disingenuously towards development indicators. In 1991, when the Soviet Union disintegrated, the European nations decided to come together and formulate the Maastricht treaty in 1993 which led to the creation of European Union. It is important for our study to understand the brief historical scenario before measuring the emission levels, as it exhibits the indicators that the model of development exercised by the European nations after 1991 was different in between each other. Countries such as France, United Kingdom, witnessed much growth and development even before the 1990s, subsequently witnessed transformation even before the eve of 1991 disintegration. However, countries such as Poland and Czech Republic who acted as the satellite states for USSR exhibited different development models to that of the previously mentioned countries. It is in this light that the study of the four countries is modelled differently from each other and respectively sheds light in studying the Europe.
The case of Poland
Poland has continued to exhibit its reliance over coal resources from the very beginning of Industrial formation, and yet in 2021, Coal alone accounts for over 70% of the total electricity generation. Although, much of the proportion of the consumption share is dependent upon Industries, the trend however has continued to decrease over the last ten years. The share of Renewable energy in Poland accounts for just only 10% and has only grown by a margin of 2% over the last twelve years, as in 2008, European Union set targets and agreed to reach the mark of 15% of the total energy consumption share by Renewable energy sources. As discussed earlier, the share of energy consumption decreases with an increase in RES (Renewable energy sources), therefore a close observation of the below graph indicates that the total energy supplied by Solid Fuels (most negative impact) has proportionately decreased with other sources. The share of Coal yet remains and
continues to deteriorate the environment by a greater margin, the share of coal in accounting for energy production has declined gradually as opposed to the increase in the share of renewable resources in energy production. The overall share in the energy consumption chart as we will discussed below arises from residential sector, indicating that much of the emissions level is shared due to inefficient electricity generation methods as opposed to the traditional notion of production and development.
In the above graph, it is clearly indicative that much of the energy consumption share arises from residential sector, the total share of industry had drastically reduced in the late 1990s.
The share of renewable resources has continued to stay at a margin of 15% over the last five years indicating the technological disingenuities of Poland with respect to electricity generation. The notion that much of the contribution is carried out by residential sector which doesn’t add value to the overall development of the economy, in terms of attributing the resource allocated for other purposes than demand creation is alarming. In simpler terms, the resource allocated towards the household sector and its subsequent environmental degradation doesn’t add much impetus to the economy, as households would create demand nonetheless of the source of electricity generation. This is hence becoming important in constructing the overall argument of sustainable development and that lack of technological innovation in electricity generation is what hinders the progress of environmental protection most of all. However, in attempting to generalize such arguments, lets focus on higher GNI per capita economies and see if it holds true.
The case of France
France has significantly low emission levels due to the usage of wide scale nuclear technologies in generating electricity, and has mandated various laws and constructed policies to further reduce carbon emission levels. The IEA (International Energy Association) review paper terms that France wants to reduce further carbon emissions through carbon credits and carbon quotas/ceiling and other such systemic laws pertaining to manufacturing industries. Although, Nuclear energy persists to exist at the benefactor in helping France reach the targets, however as per IEA accords, France does aim to reduce the nuclear usage to 50% by 2025. Below I have attached the graphs for better determination of the energy consumption levels as per the sectors.
It is highly visible that much of the share of the total energy supply comes from nuclear source, as compared to other renewable sources. This falls in line with the demand from various development sectors, as much of the demand for coal arises from manufacturing industries.
Industrial demands still account for greater coal consumption, although the declined rate has been greater as compared to the consumption patterns from other sectors. This lies in stark with other European countries such as Poland, as we discussed above, continues to be dependent upon solid fuels for electricity generation without adding much to the gross domestic production, whereas France has relied upon nuclear technologies to commensurate with the electricity generation for residential sectors, although other literature shed light upon the drawbacks behind operating with nuclear technologies. The main argument here is that much of the technological innovation is carried to decrease the demand for traditional sources by residential sector and effectively carry out research for innovation in renewable sources.
As you can see, France is highly dependent upon nuclear technologies for the overall generation of electricity, as discussed above in the case of Poland, Residential sector account for higher coal consumption in the absence of renewable sources. The share of renewables in France is similar to that of Poland, though it has increased at an increasing rate as compared to Poland, however in aggregate, the data remains the same.
Relatively, if we negate the usage of nuclear technologies, France has increasingly invested in developing wind energy mechanisms, as in the case of Poland, the energy generation by the wind power, which contributes majorly to the proportional share of renewable technologies, has stayed dormant at 17500 GWh for the last three years as compared to the increasing development by France as witnessed in the graph above.
The technological divide between Europe is imminent when it comes to measuring the development of renewable technologies, as mentioned in Fig.1, a close inspection of the graph would indicate that majority of the countries who rely heavily on solid fuels had been part of the USSR and relied heavily on manufacturing industries for employment generation of the masses. Although, the argument may in itself could not the causal factor for such differences, however certain positive correlation does arise when share of renewable energy consumption is concerned with that of the sectoral differences in context to economics. The reliance of industries, especially heavy industries which came at the expense of consumer goods, or the small-scale industries actively drove the levels of carbon emissions throughout the 20th century. The insurgence of developmental goals for these countries came at a later stage as compared to the first period of industrialization, nevertheless, the dependency over industries has reduced by a significant margin by the 1990s, soon after the disintegration of Soviet Union. And, respectively Europe has made significant efforts in implementing various frameworks to increase the share of renewable resources in the total energy consumption.
We discussed that technological advancement is different for different European countries, mainly between the western and the eastern European countries. The share of renewables in total proportion of energy consumption is different and in itself consists of various variables, for example the usage of nuclear energy in the case of France. In order to provide a reliable approach to the earlier indicators we discussed, it is better to divide the total consumption levels by the total population. This approach would make the data more reliable and lastly, we could be explaining such developments by using the fossil fuel shortages in Europe.
The above graph indicates the per capita electricity consumption in Europe, which provides a better outlook in determining the consumption levels, as some environmentalists pertaining to argue that degradation is a factor of the consumers/individuals of the state rather than a state phenomenon. We discussed extensively about the role of sectors in determining the energy consumption, however certain approach should be provided in measuring the consumption pattern by each individual.
It is indicated that over the last two years, the consumption per capita has drastically reduced, and that Europe is finally moving towards better and efficient energy, however is it really the case?
The reason behind such development is due to shortage of fossil fuels in itself for the consumers, especially natural gas. The reason being that the demand for natural gas has been extraordinarily high as compared to other sources. A detailed look at the graph would state that it lacks in measuring the energy consumption patterns by sources. The demand by the residential sector or the household sector has increased by a greater margin as compared to other sources, although countries such as France have relied upon nuclear mechanism to tackle the growing issue. The lack of other less sophisticated renewable sources has impeded the track for Europe to cut down emission levels to zero by 2050.
This has led to various notions of geo politics in the region, with Russia being the only source of natural gas, contributing over 41% of the natural gas imports. The capital investment over the decade has reduced by nearly 50 percent which has caused supply shortages and huge increase in fuel prices. Although Europe has taken considerable measures to tackle the issue of climate change by also taking in note of the demand for fossil fuels. It is the technological divide between the nations as well as the growing demand by the residential sector which hinders the prospects of eliminating the reliance over fossil fuels, consequently jeopardizing the aim to reduce the emissions by net zero by 2050.
The Curious case of India
Coal and other fossil fuels were critical to global economic prosperity.
The industrialized economies are now standing on a mountain of fossil fuels, carbon-intensive industries, and lifestyles that have contributed to global warming. The same growth route is now being called into question, and poor and emerging countries are being urged to develop, find, and support newer low- and no-carbon models in order to pull their people out of poverty and accomplish their development goals.
As a result, there are growing calls for India to proclaim a net-zero year, in which it will balance its carbon emissions through various GHG absorption and removal procedures. India recognizes that such demands are unreasonable, and has resisted making pledges or setting concrete targets beyond its obligations at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, despite international pressure.
With India's current coal reliance, "net zero" is not a realistic goal. Its decision to abandon this fuel will be heavily influenced by the amount of extra money and resources available to invest in alternative energy. However, because global climate investment has both underperformed and been cleverly repurposed, countries such as India remain desperate for green financing.
Prior to the pandemic, India had the second-largest pipeline of new coal projects in the world. In addition, he called the phase-out of coal in the electricity industry "the single most critical step" toward the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree target.
Given that India's per capita coal use is still significantly lower than that of the developed world, and that economic transformations are both unavoidable and mandated to be 'green,' this is a feasible scenario.
To be sure, India is experiencing a coal shortage, which threatens to derail the country's post-Covid-19 recovery; the same can be said of China. As a result, Western countries are increasingly skeptical that both India and China will double down on coal and increase production in the future to meet potential supply challenges. Such concerns are understandable, but they are not limited to the developing world.
Energy Use and Coal
(OECD) use less energy to power their societies: less energy is used to complete the same tasks, and energy use is changing as economic activity changes.
In developing countries, the activity effect has resulted in a significant increase in energy consumption. Growing economic in developing countries is also associated with greater living standards and socioeconomic growth. While India and China's energy consumption has roughly doubled since 2005, these countries also account for a significant portion of global energy efficiency savings.
The above data indicates the reliance upon coal by economic sectors, and it is highly visible that much of the consumption for coal arises by the industries, coal accounts for nearly 70 percent electricity generation in the country and the archaic model of industries are still dependent upon solid fuels for energy production.
Coal supplies most of India's energy, but that is set to change. What will the decline of the country's coal industry mean for its workers?
Jharia is possibly the worst coal-related disaster in Jharkhand, which has the largest known coal deposits in India. Jharkhand, despite its coal reserves, is India's poorest state, with nearly half of the population living in poverty.
As a result, Jharkhand's decades-old coal industry, and thus India's, has eventually vanished. The next step is to diversify the coal-dependent economy and provide alternative livelihoods for the many thousands of coal workers who are already employed.
This small eastern state is a microcosm of the many challenges India will face in making a fair transition away from coal. According to India, renewable energy will generate 50% of the country's electricity by 2030. This figure could rise even higher as India strives to achieve net zero emissions by 2070.
With a campaign to sell commercial mining licenses for the first time since the 1970s, the country's goals have shifted toward producing more coal rather than less. Many Indian states have also experienced power outages as a result of a coal shortage for thermal power plants, highlighting the country's continued reliance on coal.
Coal-fired power plants produce more than 70% of India's total electricity. Coal also generates significant taxes and royalties for all levels of government, as well as providing jobs and a way of life for many people.
For example, Coal India, the main federal government-owned firm that mines more than 80% of the country's coal, paid around 500 billion rupees ($6.7 billion/£4.9 billion) in federal, state, and local taxes and royalties in 2019. To put this in perspective, this amounts to roughly 3% of the federal government's total annual revenue collection. The company employs 270,000 people in total.
The issue here is, of course, the massive amounts of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere when coal is burned. India makes a significant contribution to global emissions, ranking third in total emissions while having some of the lowest per capita emissions in the world. Coal power plants also significantly contribute to India's air pollution, which kills over a million people each year.
Despite international pressure to abandon coal, India's government announced in October 2021 that it will produce one billion tons of coal by 2024 to meet the country's energy needs. In India, coal is here to stay for the foreseeable future.
India is undergoing a massive transition to renewable energy. However, ensuring a well-planned and equitable transition away from coal is critical for a country whose energy demands are expected to grow faster than those of any other country in the near future.
Coal crisis
So far, the plot has gone as follows: The coal supply held by India's thermal power plants has reached critical levels, putting the country on the verge of a power crisis. Many power plants have no reserve stock or only have enough to last a few days. In order to save energy, some states have implemented partial load-shedding. During a trip to the United States, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is accused of dismissing fears of a coal and power crisis as "completely unfounded," claiming that India is now a power-surplus country.
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/india-coal-shortage-explained-7555184/
Explained: Why the coal shortage is choking thermal power plants
Despite government recommendations that thermal power plants maintain 14 days' worth of coal stock, the average level of coal stock at a growing number of India's thermal power plants has dropped to four days' worth of stock. On October 4, 2016, 16 thermal power generators with a total capacity of 17,475 MW (megawatts) lacked coal. A total of 45 thermal power plants with a combined capacity of 59,790 MW had coal stocks that were insufficient to power the plant for two days.
What is the reason behind India’s coal shortage?
The current coal scarcity is the result of both a dramatic increase in electricity consumption as the economy recovers from the Covid-19 outbreak and supply concerns. India consumed 124 billion units of electricity in August 2021, up from 106 billion units in August 2019, when the epidemic had no effect.
Thermal power now accounts for 66.4 percent of India's power mix, up from 61.9 percent in 2019. Coal-fired thermal power plants have also accounted for a larger share of the increase in demand.
According to reports, the government has connected an additional 28.2 million households, which are purchasing lights, fans, and television sets, causing an increase in power demand.
What measures is the government taking to address the situation?
An inter-ministerial panel comprised of officials from the Power and Railway Ministries, Coal India Ltd, the Central Electricity Authority, and the Power System Operation Corporation is monitoring the supply of coal to thermal power plants.
The government is putting pressure on thermal power plants with captive coal mines to increase coal output in terms of meeting more of their very own demand, and coal supplies for thermal power stations with low stock levels are being given preference. In addition, the Power Ministry is attempting to increase coal supplies by hastening the start of production at a number of mines that have already received all necessary approvals.
Huge demand for power?
Because last year was an odd duck, criticizing "exceptional electricity demand," which was 15-20% higher than the previous year, is incorrect. Coal power generation was 10% lower in August of this year than it was in April.
Simple math shows that power plants used more coal than they received, but given that generation was not particularly high, does this imply that the problem was one of supply? No, not at all. The main issue was a lack of stockpiles. Because supply varies at random and throughout the year, power plants are designed to keep a local stockpile. coal for a variety of reasons, plants were not purchasing enough coal. They were and continue to be cash-strapped. coal for a variety of reasons, plants were not purchasing enough coal. They were and continue to be cash-strapped. Consumers delay payments to industries, delays payments to electricity production plants, causing the system to work efficiently. Because of the heightened uncertainty surrounding demand, it became "smart" in 2021 to use up onsite inventories. The story was one of abundance, not only of coal but also of power plant capacity, and each plant assumed that the nation would always step in. States were already hesitant to stockpile coal at high-cost units that rarely made it into merit order dispatch, particularly in uncertain times. When a large number of people think along the same lines, it causes a slew of problems.
https://india.mongabay.com/2021/10/indias-coal-shortage-could-set-stage-for-overhaul-of-laws/
Experts in the energy sector say that the country has enough coal, but some speculate that the shortage is merely a pretext for further dilutions in critical regulations governing coal mining and the forest sector. Despite the fact that multiple states, Delhi, have repeatedly reminded of power outages due to a lack of coal, the federal government has consistently stated that there is no shortage of coal.
Sudeep Shrivastava, an environmental lawyer who has closely followed the coal industry, told that coal availability at mines and coal availability at power plants are not the same thing. "The situation is such that there is supply at the coal mines but not at the plants."
What is the extent of the current coal crisis?
A number of states, including Delhi, Punjab, and Rajasthan, have expressed concern about possible blackouts due to low coal stockpile at plants. Thermal power plants operating at reduced capacity have already resulted in load shedding in these states.
The limited availability of coal is due to unexpected increase in electricity consumption after pandemic. The total power demand in August was 124 billion units, slightly higher compared from 106 billion units in August of last year. The coal shortage h increased in international coal prices due to a shortage in China, as well as low stock accumulation by power plants in the April-June timeframe. The delivery of coal was slowed in September due to heavy rains in coal-producing areas.
Result and Discussion
The case study that we discussed in the paper instigates different outcomes in terms of energy consumption patterns, In the case of Europe, it is mainly the residential sector that is responsible for the overhaul demand, furthermore the technological divide is eminent between western and eastern Europe which inundates the issue. However, the role of European Union might desecrate the policy limitations, as unified goal envisaged by the Union will exhibit the usage of technological transfer to tackle the issue of greenhouse gas emissions. The country of India dissects from the case of Europe in the manner that although there has been quite a number of renewable approaches introduced to increase the flow of renewable sources, however cost inputs and supply chain constraints make it difficult for India to better implement green technologies, especially in the scenario of manufacturing industries who rely heavily on coal usages. India and Europe, although dependent upon different sources, still face the grave problem of fossil fuel shortages, in the case of Europe, it is the disinvestment which has derailed the production of natural gas, in an attempt to move towards much cleaner and efficient technologies, however in the case of India, the problem persists in the drying up of coal belts, as discussed in the case of Jharia. Such developments may be futile in the longer run given that coal accounts for nearly 75% of the total electricity generation. The case in Europe puts itself at the juxtaposition whether it can stay independent from the usage of fossil fuel resources and given the lack of renewable technologies especially if we negate nuclear mechanisms, Europe still has a long way to go. India, however doesn’t face the benefit of substitution, as given that the share of renewable resources in the total proportion of energy production has decreased over the last ten years by nearly 3%. It is in this sense that both cases provide a stark contrast in terms of the share of renewable resources, however do conjoin in certain domains of supply shortages respectively, natural gas in the case of Europe and Coal in the case of India.
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https://www.iea.org/regions/europe
